Dependable Erection

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Filibustering Alito

Anybody read DHinMI's front page piece over at dKos today?

Here's the grafs that jumped out at me:

Therefore, while there seems to be sound reasons to expect Alito to join the right wing radicals on the Supreme Court, if one accepts that Roberts will be an O'Connor-like swing vote--I'm not sure that's correct, but if one accepts the theory--then the swap of Rehnquist and O'Connor for Roberts and Alito is largely a wash. Alito may be marginally worse that Rehnquist, but Roberts, as Chief Justice, may be about the same as O'Connor, but with the higher status as Chief Justice.

If this is the Democrats' calculation, then one can see a reason to not provoke a possible launch of the Nuclear Option. We're less than a year away from what appears a likely Democratic gain in the Senate, possibly even a transfer of control from the Republicans to the Democrats. The idea behind preventing the Nuclear Option has always been, as already mentioned, to maintain that one-use filibuster of an odious Supreme Court nominee who would alter the balance on the court. If the combination of Roberts and Alito is seen as maintaining the status quo of the court, then it's the next nomination by Bush, should he get that opportunity, that would be more likely to tip the court. Thus, with octogenarian John Paul Stevens and septuagenarian Ruth Bader Ginsberg, the calculation may be to hold the filibuster in reserve should it be needed to prevent an Alito-like zealot from replacing one of the liberal justices.



It seems to me that failure to attempt a filibuster of Alito makes taking back the Senate a whole lot less likely, especially if Bob Casey gets the nomination in PA over Chuck Pennachio. The Democratic establishment (Schumer, et al) wanted to run Casey as the anti-abortion candidate against the pro-choice Specter. But Arlen has just given the anti-abortion side a good reason to vote for him,by successfully shepherding Alito through committee and if Casey wins the nomination, why should the pro-choice crowd even want to vote? It's that kind of cynical politics that makes so many people who aren't party activists or even dedicated voters throw up their hands and say "why should i bother?"

One sees the parallels between a group of lobsters in the pot discussing whether or not the temperature has yet reached the point at which it's time to do something, and the Democratic leadership trying to figure out whether or not to filibuster Alito.

(update) - D'oh. Santorum is up for re-election this year in PA, not Specter. I knew that. Syupid is as stupid does, i guess.

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